---

Why the iPhone 5c ISN'T failing

iPhone 5c並非失敗產品 只因世人誤解蘋果


In the month since Apple released its new iPhone 5s and iPhone
5c phones, the market has been deluged with the sentiment that
the iPhone 5c "is a failure." Apple bears are rallying around reports
that Apple has cut orders for the iPhone 5c, although they are not
sure just how much Apple is cutting production.



All of these rumors about the iPhone 5c being a failure are flawed for
one simple reason: They misunderstand the purpose of the 5c. Many
observers -- including me -- expected Apple to release a "cheap" iPhone
this year. When Apple released the iPhone 5c alongside the high-end
iPhone 5s, a large contingent of Apple-watchers assumed that it was
the rumored "cheaper" iPhone.

實際上﹐所有認為iPhone 5c是一款失敗的產品的想法是存在缺陷的,
原因很簡單﹐這些人誤解了蘋果推出5c的目的。在新品發佈前﹐市場分
析人士普遍預期蘋果會推出一款廉價iPhone。因此﹐當蘋果連同其高
端產品5s一同發佈5c時﹐大部分分析師認為這便是傳說中的廉價iPhone。

But the iPhone 5c is not a cheaper iPhone; it fits directly into the same
pricing scheme Apple has used for years. It is not designed to gain
market share in developing countries. It is not meant to target users
who don't receive smartphone subsidies.


也不意味著其目標用戶群為注重空機價﹐而不綁約獲得手機補貼的一群。


Instead, the iPhone 5c's primary purpose is to boost Apple's margins
by cutting production costs and minimizing cannibalization of the highly
profitable iPhone 5s. So far, investors have every reason to believe that
the iPhone 5c is succeeding in that task.



Margin quandary

盈利困境

While the financial press has extensively covered the slowdown in Apple's
growth this year, the issue that has really spooked investors has been
margin contraction. Apple churns out so much cash that the stock is a
no-brainer even with no growth. The biggest risk for Apple investors is
not slowing growth, but a potential collapse of the company's legendary
margins.


得投資。對於蘋果投資者﹐最大的風險並不在於成長放緩﹐而且其一貫高

到不可思議的利潤率可能下降的問題。

Margin erosion was a key factor driving Apple stock's poor performance
in the past year. Apple's gross margin has fallen year-over-year for three
consecutive quarters, and will almost certainly fall again when Apple reports
September quarter results next week. Sometimes the declines have been
quite substantial; in the March quarter, gross margin dropped by 990 basis
points compared to the same quarter in 2012.



One cause of this margin erosion has been cannibalization of the full-size
iPad by the lower-margin iPad Mini. However, declining profitability within
the iPhone product line has been just as important. The iPhone 5 was very
difficult to manufacture, driving up production costs compared to the iPhone
4S. Meanwhile, Apple experienced a mix-shift toward older, cheaper iPhones
that also pressured product margins.

導致該公司利潤率下滑的一個原因便是全尺寸iPad替代產品iPad Mini


iPhone 5c to the rescue!

iPhone 5c應運而生

This may be the true "origin" of the iPhone 5c. The idea that it is a cheaper
phone designed to appeal to developing-world customers is fairly ridiculous,
considering that it's not even the cheapest iPhone on the market!



Instead, the iPhone 5c is simply a new version of the iPhone 5 that is cheaper
to produce. IHS iSuppli has pinned the manufacturing cost of the high-end
iPhone 5s at $199, just above the $197 cost of the iPhone 5 from last year. By
contrast, the 16 GB version of the iPhone 5c costs just $173 to build, according
to IHS estimates.

相反的﹐iPhone 5c祗是生產成本相對便宜的iPhone 5新版本。據美市場
調研機構IHS iSuppli推測﹐ iPhone高階產品5s製造成本為199美元﹐略高
於去年推出的iPhone 5﹐後者製造成本為197美元。而16GB版本的5c則僅
僅為173美元。

Since the iPhone 5c is cheaper to build than the iPhone 5, Apple is making
more money right now than it would have if the company had stuck with its
old strategy of pricing last year's product (i.e. the iPhone 5) at $99 with a 2-year
contract or $549 unsubsidized. The cost savings may be even greater than
the IHS figures imply. The iPhone 5 was hard to manufacture, leading to high
failure rates, which are not reflected in the IHS estimates. The iPhone 5c's plastic
casing makes it much easier to build, avoiding this problem.



Low sales of the iPhone 5c are not necessarily a bad thing, either. (I should
also point out that according to the most drastic rumors, Apple has cut 5c
production from 300,000 units per day to 150,000 units per day, or nearly 55
million per year, which is hardly disastrous.) If the 5c sells poorly because of
a mix shift back toward Apple's priciest phones, that would be great for the
company. After all, the 5s is Apple's most profitable product!


量因消費者轉向蘋果高階產品5s而減少﹐這對於蘋果公司來講顯然利大於弊。

畢竟5s才是蘋果最賺錢的產品。

Foolish bottom line

總結

As soon as Apple revealed pricing for the new iPhone 5c, it should have been
clear that Apple was not planning to use it to gain market share abroad. But
many people had expected a "cheap" iPhone in the months prior to Apple's
launch event. As a result, a large contingent of the media has become fixated
on the comparatively low sales of the iPhone 5c, as if market share were the
primary yardstick of success.


價產品。因此﹐5c上市後的銷量成為一大批媒體關注的重點﹐就好像市場份額

成了成功與否的首要標準。

But the point of introducing two new iPhones was not to improve Apple's market
share in developing markets. Instead Apple appears to be using the older iPhone 4
and iPhone 4S handsets -- and even used phones it is collecting through trade-in
programs -- to bring in new lower-income customers.



Instead, the iPhone 5c was introduced in order to reduce Apple's production
costs. Apple has already stated that gross margin will be near the high end of
its guidance range for the September quarter. This suggests that the iPhone 5c
is fulfilling its main purpose. If Apple forecasts margin improvement for the
current quarter, that would be even stronger evidence that the iPhone 5c has
succeeded.


其主要目的。假如蘋果接下來財報, 預期以後毛利率將會提高﹐則是為iPhone 5c

的成功提供更強有力的證明。

本文作者亞當‧萊文溫伯格（Adam Levine-Weinberg）﹐美知名投資網站The
Motley Fool新晉自由撰稿人。

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/10/22/iphone-5c-not-failing/3150327/

http://big5.gmw.cn/g2b/IT.gmw.cn/2013-10/23/content_9256921.htm

還在糾結iPhone 5c銷售量嗎 也許該換個想法了

--
Sent from my Android

--
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 220.141.153.38

--