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標題
China’s Threats of War Push Taiwan to Boost U.S. Economic Links
中國的戰爭威脅，促使台灣加速與美國間的經濟連結

It’s hard to find a world leader who’s had a better 2020 than Taiwan
President Tsai Ing-wen.
很難找到一個世界領導人，比台灣總統蔡英文擁有更好的2020年。

She won re-election in January in a landslide, oversaw one of the world’s
best responses to the Covid-19 pandemic and helmed an economic recovery that
has boosted Taiwan’s stock exchange to record heights. The central bank last
week revised up its 2020 growth target to 1.6%, making it an outlier among
global peers as most major economies shrink.


But Tsai does have one major problem: The Communist Party is threatening her
life, with its Global Times newspaper saying over the weekend she would be “
wiped out” in a war if she violated China’s anti-secession law.
但蔡英文確實在面臨一項重大問題，那就是中國共產黨正在威脅他的生命。環球時報（
中國官媒）表示，如果侵犯到了反分裂國家法，那蔡英文將在戰爭中被除去。

The warning in a tweet Saturday described her dinner with Keith Krach, the
most senior U.S. State Department official to visit Taiwan since 1979, as “
playing with fire.” People’s Liberation Army aircraft last week repeatedly
breached the median line between Taiwan and China, and the PLA Air Force
released a video showing H-6 bombers making a simulated strike on what looked
like a U.S. military base on the nearby island of Guam.
蔡英文與Keith Krach共進晚餐，而這是自1979年來美國國務院資深官員首次的官方訪問
，而環球時報的推特稱此事是在玩火。人民解放軍的軍機在上周屢次侵犯台灣海峽中線，
根據人民解放空軍釋出的影片，H-6轟炸機對關島附近的美國軍事基地進行了模擬攻擊。

While China’s military dwarfs that of Taiwan, an amphibious invasion across
the 100-mile-wide strait separating the two carries risks that could easily
backfire on the world’s number-two economy. Although many observers see the
U.S. coming to Taiwan’s aid if China were to launch an attack, Tsai’s
government is actively taking steps to increase economic ties between the
unofficial allies to provide more incentives for American policy makers to
intervene.


“If we lessen our economic reliance on China, it won’t be able to
politically blackmail us,” Kolas Yotaka, presidential office spokeswoman,
told Bloomberg. “By establishing closer economic ties with other countries,
we’ll be able to uphold regional peace through shared prosperity.”


Right now, the economic relationship is heavily tilted toward Beijing.
Exports to China accounted for 42.3% of Taiwan’s total in the first half of
this year, with only 14.7% going to the U.S. during the same period.
Taiwanese investment in China in the first eight months of this year was up
50% year on year, totaling $3.9 billion, according to Taiwan’s economic
ministry.


Tsai’s government, however, has sought to reverse those trends in particular
by encouraging companies to bring their tech supply chains out of China to
Taiwan and places like Southeast Asia. In late August, she also lifted a ban
on certain U.S. pork and beef products -- the major obstacle toward a trade
agreement with the U.S.


“We must accelerate our linkage to economies around the world, in particular
strengthening our ties with our most steadfast partner,” Tsai said at the
time. Through July, American government data shows Taiwan as its
ninth-largest trade partner, up from eleventh last year.


The Krach visit marked another milestone in that effort. Tsai hosted a dinner
Friday night for him that also included Morris Chang, founder of Taiwan
Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the main chipmaker for Apple Inc. The
presence of Chang, whose company recently announced it would build a $12
billion facility in Arizona, highlighted the importance of Taiwan’s
cutting-edge semiconductor industry, which the U.S. is looking to wall off
from Chinese companies such as Huawei Technologies Co.

有多麼重要
。

On Sunday, Taiwan’s economic minister, Wang Mei-hua, announced she had met
with Krach’s delegation for talks to prepare for a formal economic dialogue.
Tsai on Tuesday also highlighted the importance of strengthening economic
ties with the European Union and raised the prospect of a bilateral
investment agreement with the bloc, which is the biggest source of investment
in Taiwan.


Any serious discussions with the U.S. would be helmed by Trade Representative
Robert Lighthizer, who negotiated the phase-one deal with China signed
earlier this year.
與美國進行的認真討論將由貿易代表Robert Lighthizer進行，而他在今年初才與中國談判
了第一階段協議。

While it’s unclear if Taiwan is on the USTR’s list of priorities, any
agreement would go a long way toward bringing Taiwan out of its diplomatic
isolation, according to Tiffany Ma, senior director at Bower Group Asia.
Bower Group Asia資深經理Tiffany Ma表示，雖然尚不清楚台灣是否在美國貿易代表署的
優先處理名單上，但任何協議都將大大助益台灣擺脫外交孤立。

A bilateral trade agreement “would further benefit Taiwan’s security by
giving momentum -- and political cover -- for other countries to pursue
similar arrangements with Taiwan,” she said.
雙邊貿易協定可以讓那些與台灣有貿易約定的國家，得到足夠的誘因與政治藉口，從而進
一步有益於台灣的安全。

The U.S. formally cut ties with Taiwan’s government in 1979 in order to
establish relations with Beijing. Four decades later, however, U.S. ties with
China are getting worse by the day while trade and official exchanges with
Taiwan are on the rise.
為了與北京建立關係，美國在1979年正式與台灣政府斷絕關係。然而，四十年後，隨著美
國與中國的關係日益惡化，與台灣的貿易和官方往來正在增加。

Shortly before Krach arrived in Taipei, Wisconsin Republican congressman Tom
Tiffany introduced a bill to establish formal diplomatic relations with
Taiwan and negotiate a free trade agreement. While the bill is unlikely to
pass, the fact that a member of Congress is calling for recognition of Taiwan
risks adding to Beijing’s worst fears.


Despite the military saber-rattling over the weekend, China doesn’t appear
ready to give up on economic engagement with Taiwan. Wang Yang, the Communist
Party’s No. 4 official, on Saturday pledged to “further improve policy
measures and arrangements” that benefit Taiwanese people.
儘管上週末軍方大刀闊斧，但中國似乎並未準備放棄與台灣的經濟交往。中共排名第四的
官員汪洋在週六承諾，將進一步增加有利台灣人民的政策措施和計畫。

“We need to have a longer-term vision,” said Liu Guoshen, director of the
Taiwan Research Institute at Xiamen University, which sits across the strait.
廈門大學台灣研究所所長劉國深說：「我們需要將眼光放遠一點。」

Even so, China’s recent military maneuvers near Taiwan signal that it is
watching carefully and possibly willing to escalate. While the Communist
Party has never ruled Taiwan, and polls show the vast majority of Taiwanese
citizens don’t want it to, President Xi Jinping has vowed to take it by
force if necessary.


“Beijing fears a slippery slope,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the China
Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It
worries that the U.S. has abandoned its one-China policy and won’t respect
China’s red lines.”
戰略與國際研究中心「中國實力計畫」的主任Bonnie Glaser表示：「北京擔心被軟土深
掘，更擔心美國放棄了一中政策且不再尊重中國的底線。」

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編按：一開始打算全手動，後面幾段覺得太麻煩，就用機翻＋人工校對修正。
如有理解錯誤，還請各位先進指教。
至於內容是否有利於蔡英文政府，則由各位看官自行判斷。

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