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作者 KevinLow (廢文漏)
標題 [颱風] 17W
時間 Mon Nov 13 18:48:04 2023


北部今天冷涼冷涼的
菲律賓東方海面還是擠出個熱帶低氣壓
大J看起來看好他成颱風

https://i.imgur.com/x2EEfED.jpg
[圖]

WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z --- NEAR 8.1N 139.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.1N 139.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 7.8N 138.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 7.9N 138.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 8.0N 137.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 8.2N 135.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 8.9N 132.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 10.1N 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 11.3N 125.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 138.9E.
13NOV23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
130600Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 11
FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 114.137.229.23 (臺灣)
※ 作者: KevinLow 2023-11-13 18:48:04
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1bKVxdJO (TY_Research)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1699872487.A.4D8.html
推 jasonccr: 小J倒是賜死了1F 11/13 22:21
推 WuCH1022: 2023聖嬰麻煩去領繩子 生成數還能輸反聖嬰 太丟臉了2F 11/13 22:41
→ uodam64402: 沒辦法，感覺是全球暖化有關，現在南高的東風風切餘威太強，實在太過抑制了擾動的增強與發展。
這幾年太常發生南高東伸到西太平洋去切死颱風現象。3F 11/13 22:44
推 Chang0212: 不成氣候
https://i.imgur.com/supKOQV.jpg
看看這啥鳥樣子
https://i.imgur.com/48QgBFz.jpg6F 11/13 22:49
[圖]
 
[圖]
→ Chang0212: 這風切……
https://i.imgur.com/tLGODET.jpg10F 11/13 22:53
[圖]
推 aegis43210: 還以為是201012F 11/13 22:56
推 ltytw: 我來去查查今年西太生成了幾個   感覺今年沒有很
搖滾13F 11/14 07:37
推 killseven: 西太沒有很搖滾 但台灣可是蠻搖滾的
歷史上的幾個少颱風年 2010 1998 跟今年
台灣的颱風可是都不算少
反而比例看起來 台灣還算是偏多15F 11/14 08:15
推 x111222z: 看生成位置和熱低壓數比較像2006、2009，差別在今年的熱低壓沒法長成颱風的比例高很多19F 11/14 10:28
推 wl3532: 熱低壓不是熱帶性低氣壓21F 11/14 13:34
→ hinajian: 這堆渣算熱低嗎w22F 11/14 14:34

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