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作者 polanco (polanco)
標題 [分享] 官網分析大谷翔平下家以及球探觀點
時間 Sun Nov  5 14:01:13 2023

來源：https://atmlb.com/47kVQsu

潛在下家：天使、道奇、巨人、水手、大都會、教士、遊騎兵、紅襪

官網猜這八隊選一，理由大概都跟別家媒體講得差不多


覺得比較有趣的是後面對於大谷作為自由球員的分析

SCOUT’S TAKE 球探觀點

“A generational talent who is a superstar as a hitter and pitcher, his free age
ncy is unlike anything we have ever seen. Because of his injury, the value on th
e mound needs to be discounted, not only because he won’t contribute in that as
pect next year, but also the longer-term risk associated with coming back from a
 second UCL surgery. Because the contributions on the mound are more difficult t
o project, I believe most teams will have to focus their investment parameters o
n Ohtani the hitter, where his top-of-the-scale strength makes him a unique play
er who can hit and hit for power in the middle of a championship lineup.

這部分提及大谷的天份是整個世代難得一見的，無論投打都是超級明星，也讓他成為獨一無
二的自由球員。

不過受傷導致他的投球價值減損，不只是因為他明年不能投，還有兩次韌帶重建手術帶來的
風險。而由於未來的投球貢獻難以評估，這位球探相信大多數球隊會將重點集中在打者大谷
身上，能夠兼顧打擊率以及長打力量的獨特能力使他足以擔任爭冠球隊的中心打者。


“Shohei is a tremendous athlete who clearly takes care of his body and should a
ge well. The only concern from an offensive standpoint is that there is some zon
e expansion and swing/miss at times, but it is easily offset by top-of-the-scale
 power production. The contributions at DH alone are special enough to receive c
onsideration for a mega-deal, but factor in the interest from big-market clubs a
nd potential impact on the mound once fully healthy and who knows how far owners
 might be willing to go to add a future Hall of Famer.”

大谷有著頂尖的運動能力而且很照顧自己的身體，所以應該會老化的比較慢。在打擊上唯一
能挑剔的只有偶爾會放大好球帶並且揮空，不過頂級長打產能就能抵消這個小缺點。

單純看大谷擔任DH的貢獻就足以讓他拿到大約，然後還要考慮大市場球隊的興趣以及大谷未
來健康重返投手丘的潛在價值，誰知道老闆願意花多少來引進一名未來的名人堂球員。



BUYER BEWARE 買家注意

This is the part where we point out a flaw in the free agent’s game. Umm. Right
. Sure, Ohtani was in the bottom 12th percentile in whiff rate last season and h
is strikeout rate was in the bottom third of the league, but are we really going
 to nitpick those stats? If there’s anything to make potential suitors hesitate
 to shell out big bucks for Ohtani, it’s that he’s had two Tommy John surgerie
s in five years. Ohtani plans to return to the mound in 2025, but until he’s ba
ck out there mowing down opposing hitters, there will be some question as to whe
ther he can return to his dominant form.

這段是分析缺點的部分，提到了今年打者大谷的揮空率（PR值只有12）以及被三振率（大約
落在聯盟後三分之一），不過作者不覺得這是什麼大問題。

他認為買家會猶豫的點在於大谷五年內動了兩次TJ手術，雖然預定會在2025年回歸投手丘，
但只有到了實戰面對打者的時候我們才能知道大谷能不能找回過去的宰制力。


FOR COMP'S SAKE 身價模板

There’s no way to find a good comp for Ohtani, who is doing things no player ha
s ever done before. Based purely on his offense, Ohtani figures to be worth at l
east as much as Judge, who signed a nine-year, $360 million deal to return to th
e Yankees last winter. Whether Ohtani -- who is a year younger than Judge was wh
en he hit free agency -- can return to his two-way dominance remains to be seen,
 but potential suitors will likely have to pay him as if that’s a foregone conc
lusion. This contract should be unlike any other we’ve seen -- or are likely to
 see again anytime soon.

基本上沒得比，因為過去沒人達成過一樣的事情。

只看打者的部分能比的就是法官去年跟洋基簽的9年3.6億鎂。而大谷進市場的時候還比去年
的法官小一歲，無論他能否找回二刀流的身手，買家的出價可能都需要達到他能找回身手的
水平。所以他的合約會是前所未見，而且短期內也難以再現的價碼。






大概是這樣

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 223.139.132.18 (臺灣)
※ 作者: polanco 2023-11-05 14:01:13
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1bHo-hlp (Baseball)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Baseball/M.1699164075.A.BF3.html
噓 Moroshe: 大谷哪來動兩次TJ1F 11/05 14:04
推 joexnozomi: 不是兩次了嗎？2F 11/05 14:07
推 k23210000: 第二次似乎不是TJ3F 11/05 14:08
推 killua0209: 大谷第二次不是開TJ4F 11/05 14:08
→ pinky841118: 大谷第二次開的不是TJ，之前板上有討論過了5F 11/05 14:09
推 joexnozomi: 原來如此
感謝6F 11/05 14:24
推 Anakin: 簡單說，想要大谷的球隊，給他他要的合約只是進場門檻
韌帶收傷你愛怎麼擔心隨便你，但一樣要付錢8F 11/05 14:27
→ befly10015: 大谷受傷還堅持上場 真的不覺得他有很愛惜自己身體10F 11/05 15:11
→ polanco: 覺得那段是指大谷的生活習慣11F 11/05 15:17
推 Anakin: 誰說受傷不能上場，上場就是不愛惜身體？醫生還是鄉民？12F 11/05 15:27
推 aaronpwyu: 那段跟受傷上場無關 是潔身自愛日常的那種 無不良習慣等等13F 11/05 16:49

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