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原文:https://deanondraft.com/2017/06/24/2018-preview-is-michael-porter-a-future-nba-star/


Doncic的部分


2018 Preview: Is Michael Porter a Future NBA Star?

Now that the 2017 draft is over, attention shifts to 2018 where
Michael Porter Jr. is battling Luka Doncic for #1 overall, where
league executives are allegedly split. I decided to get a taste of
Michael Porter Jr. by watching the Nike Hoop Summit where he led team
USA with 19 points.

Michael Porter Jr. Scouting Report

Michael Porter Jr. 球探報告

Porter is a 6’10” knockdown shooter who rebounds well and has decent
athleticism. So it is easy to see why he is labeled as a possible #1,
as that baseline of skill makes it sound like he has Kevin Durant
upside.

Porter是一個6'10有著不錯體能與籃板能力的射手，所以會被視為可能的狀元人
選是很正常的，畢竟基本能力聽起來就像有KD的上限一樣

But his warts are apparent in watching him play. He is not
particularly smooth, explosive, or advanced with the handle so he
struggled to get by defenders and often drove directly into the crowd
and hoisted some awkward looking shots. On several occasions he was
able to flail and draw free throws, but it appears that and pulling up
for jumpers are the only creation he can muster off the dribble.



He does not have good passing instincts, as while he is a willing
passer it is with the objective of moving the ball rather than setting
up a teammate. For all of the goodness that his shooting presents on
offense, his shaky instincts shown in his slashing and passing are
going to detract from his shooting goodness.

他沒有好的傳球本能，雖然他願意傳但那是出於幫助球的流動而不是幫隊友創造
機會，他不怎麼樣的切入與傳球本領讓他的投射能力失色不少

Defensively he has the size and mobility to make an occasional play,
but his awareness is not great as he had lapses where he got caught
watching the ball or out of position. On the upside has has great
height and moves well and was able to use his tools be useful at times
, so it is difficult to judge his defense as either good or bad based
on this game. But based on his limited instincts he does not appear to
be a stopper on this end and has clear downside.




Overall Sentiment

綜合感受

Porter strongly reminisces of my first time viewing Andrew Wiggins,
where it stunned me that people viewed him as a tanking candidate.
They have a number of marked similarities as prospects, as Porter
essentially has two inches of height and better shooting in lieu of
Wiggins’ otherworldly athleticism.

Porter強烈的讓我想起第一眼看到Andrew Wiggins時，人們把他視為開坦的目標
，這真是嚇壞我惹。他們有好些相似處，只不過Porter高一些投籃好一點，而
Wiggins有外星人體能罷了

This was just one game, and I cannot yet rule out that he will be good
 But elite stars normally stand out to my eye immediately: Joel
Embiid and Lonzo Ball were love at first sight, and Karl Anthony Towns
, Ben Simmons, and Markelle Fultz were extremely attractive at first
blush (even if I have my doubts about the latter two, their talent is
undeniable).



Porter is in a class with Andrew Wiggins of putting me in shock that
people can look at a prospect like this and somehow believe he is
better than prospects like Luka Doncic or Lonzo Ball. I would bet
every dollar I own that he is not.

Porter與Wiggins讓我震驚的就是人們看著他們這樣的prospect居然認為他們會
比Luka Doncic或Lonzo Ball還要好，我會跟人賭身家他不是這樣

I am not going to call him a likely bust based on a one game eye test,
as Andrew Wiggins could have been pretty good if he was able to
develop better from his rookie year. But it is difficult to argue that
the hype machine be given any benefit of the doubt to treat Porter as
anything remotely special this early.



No Proof of Goodness Means More Downside

沒有證據證明優點意謂著更多的缺點

1251047

The fact of the matter is that the draft hype machine has not exactly
been nailing NCAA top 3’s a year ahead of time lately

事實上宣傳機器近年來在提前一年預言NCAA前三順位其實不怎麼厲害

2014: Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle
2015: Jahlil Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay, Stanley Johnson
2016: Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere, Jaylen Brown
2017: Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Josh Jackson

8 of those 12 have playing at least one NBA season, and all look
disappointing relative to hype. Simmons, Tatum, and Jackson are the
only ones with clear star potential, and none of them are guarantees.



If you randomly select a player from this pile, he is more likely than
not to be an ordinary, meh NBA player. It is extremely difficult to
predict NBA success without observation vs. NCAA or professional
competition. Intuitively Porter, Ayton, and Bamba do not seem any
better than prior early top 3’s, and are each more likely to be below
average NBA players than good starters.



How Does Porter Compare to 2017?

與2017比較起來?

Everybody who thinks Porter should go #1 in 2017 is crazy. It would be
terrible if any of Porter, Ayton, or Bamba were chosen in this year’s
top 6, as it was a especially good top 6 (Fultz, Ball, Tatum, Jackson,
Fox, Isaac) who all showed strong potential vs. NCAA competition
compared to 19 y/o’s who have been feasting on 17 and 18 y/o’s.

任何人會以為Porter放在2017應該是狀元，那他一定是瘋了。如果Porter、


I would also take Real Madrid star Luka Doncic over all 3 prospects
combined, as he has been one of the best players in the second best
professional league behind the NBA, all at a younger age than these
guys as high school seniors. It may seem crazy now, but in a few years
it will not.

我也會為了選皇馬的Luka Doncic而跳過所有前三新秀，他已經在NBA外世上第二
好的聯盟成為最佳球員，甚至比這些傢伙在高中最後一年時還年輕。這現在看
起來也許很狂，但幾年後可能就不是這樣了

I know these are many piping hot takes at once, but if nothing else
they will be fun to re-visit in a few years. On to the rankings:

我知道這些是同時期炙手可勢的人選，但若無意外幾年後再來回顧他們應該會很
有趣。


Tier 1: Basketball God

第一級: 籃球之神

1. Luka Doncic 6’8〃 Real Madrid

I still need to watch him before singing his praises too loudly, but
he is 6’8〃, athletic, super skilled, and smart and has clear
GOAT potential. It is difficult to see him failing, and there is no
reasonable argument that anybody else should even sniff #1.



Tier 2: Regular Basketball Players

第二級: 普通籃球員

2. Collin Sexton, 6’2〃 Freshman, Alabama

Sexton is the only player in the Hoop Summit who glowed to my eye. He
is incredibly athletic, smooth, and shifty, and has strong potential
as a slasher. He also showed legitimate passing and vision, and can be
a pest on defense and was willing to battle with bigs for rebounds.

It is difficult to get too excited for a 6’2〃 player this far
from the draft, and Sexton does seem to be a risk of taking poor shots
and over gambling on defense. But he is the only player in the Hoop
Summit who looked like a possible future star, so he gets my #2 slot.

3. Wendell Carter, 6’10” Freshman, Duke

Carter was more quiet than I had hoped in the Hoop Summit, but it is
still easy to see him being good. He has a 7’3〃+ wingspan which
gives him potential to play center in the NBA, and he seems to be
above average at everything.

The main thing holding him back from top 3 hype is lack of elite
explosiveness, but he is a good, well rounded basketball player who is
almost a year younger than each of Ayton, Bamba, and Porter.

4. DeAndre Ayton, 7’0〃 Freshman, Arizona

Ayton did not play in the Hoop Summit, so my eyes have yet to qualify
him. I have my doubts about him as he has a reputation for not caring
a ton, but he has monster height and a 7’5〃 wingspan with real
talent, so I will see how he looks for Arizona before passing firm
judgment.

5. Mohamed Bamba, 7’0〃 Freshman, Texas

Bamba has a 7’9〃 wingspan and projects to be a force
defensively, and he did look impressive on that end at the Hoop Summit
 Unfortunately, he looked like a zero offensively as he cannot handle
and his touch around the rim looked bad.

On the upside he can make FT’s and the announcers were saying his
touch is normally good, so if he can at least make shots offensively
he has upside to be a Rudy Gobert or Tyson Chandler type.

6. Michael Porter Jr., 6’10” Freshman, Missouri

As I have detailed, I do not believe he is great. Maybe he is
nevertheless good, but at this juncture there is no compelling reason
to believe that he is anything other than an ordinary top 10 prospect.

同我已詳述的，我不相信他有特別出色，也許他仍然算不錯，但在目前來說沒有
具說服力的理由去相信他會比普通前十新秀出色

That said this is a low confidence opinion, and it will be easier to
have a grasp on him when he plays for Missouri. By draft time it is
possible I will move him up into the top 3, or he may be out of the
top 10. It could go either way.

這樣說不太可信，所以等他到密蘇里打球時會更清楚他的狀況。選秀時他也許會
在我的TOP3或前十外，都有可能(譯:有點廢話 XDD)

7. Ethan Happ, 6’9〃 Junior, Wisconsin

Happ hardly has any draft hype, as he is only ranked 36th on
DraftExpress. The knock on him is that he is a traditional white PF
who cannot shoot and lacks explosive athleticism, so he is getting
overlooked as a draft prospect.

But people are wrong to overlook him, as he is a stud at everything
but shooting. He may not be a leaper but he moves his feet well, and
at 6’9〃 he is an elite handler, passer, rebounder, and
defensive player who excels at everything except scoring from a
distance. At age 21 with a 57% FT you have to be worried about his
shot, and it is genuinely a major wart.

But given how elite the rest of his profile is, I would happily gamble
on it all working out.

8. DeAnthony Melton, 6’4〃 Sophomore, USC

DeAnthony Melton completely stuffed the statsheet as an 18 year old
freshman, as he racked up rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. He
has exceptional instincts to go with great length and quickness, and
has the foundation to be a star combo guard.

The downside is that he still has a long way to go to fit in
offensively as he posted just a 33rd percentile half court efficiency
on low usage as a freshman. He still is not a reliable 3P shooter at
28% and he cannot yet create against a set defense.

If Melton makes a major offensive leap as a sophomore he has star
upside, otherwise he is an intriguing role player.

While Melton and Happ have their share of flaws, they also have unique
strengths to help them overcome. Don’t be surprised when one of the
duo is a better pro than Michael Porter Jr.

9. Robert Williams, 6’9〃 Sophomore, Texas A&M

The Aggies had no point guard this past season and all of their
returners badly regressed. Now that they have help at the position,
Williams who excels at moving off the ball and finishing may see a big
sophomore breakout.

10. Miles Bridges, 6’6〃 Sophomore, Michigan St.

Bridges is smooth and athletic, and coming off a good freshman season
for Michigan State where he did a bit of everything.

The only worry with Bridges is that his dimensions are a bit weak as
he last measured 6’6.25〃 with a 6’8.75〃 wingspan. Given
that he also had a mediocre efficiency, he will have extra worry about
his ability to be an efficient NBA player without better combine
measurements.

11. Jarred Vanderbilt, 6’9〃 Freshman, Kentucky

Vanderbilt was the surprise star of the Hoop Summit, and he has strong
feel for the game with excellent rebounding and passing. He also is
able to make plays on defense and is one of the younger members of the
class having recently turned 18.

His downside is that he is a poor shooter, and does not look like an
elite defensive stopper to make his shot worth stomaching. But I would
nevertheless not be surprised if he emerges as the best freshman in
the class.

12. Jaren Jackson Jr., 6’10” Freshman, Michigan St.

Jackson is still just 17 and has good physical tools for a big, and
made a number of impressive finishes and defensive plays in the Hoop
Summit. He also has traces of an outside shot, and is another player
who has potential to climb my board by the draft. While the freshman
class lacks a likely star, there is a significant cluster of players
that have a chance of shining in NCAA.

I only have Jackson 12th because he appears to be a role player with
questionable instincts, but he could just as easily be argued to be
much higher.

13. Troy Brown, 6’6〃 Freshman, Oregon

Brown is the super role player of the class, as he has a 6’11”
wingspan and made some impressive passes for a wing in the Hoop Summit
 He also competed and moved his feet well defensively and at 17 is
one of the youngest players in the class.

He is a prototypical 3 + D wing, as his only weaknesses are lack of
elite athleticism and scoring ability. This does inhibit his upside,
but if teams pay this too much attention he could be a steal in the
back end of the lottery.

Overall I believe the freshman class should be seen as 5 good but not
great prospects battling for #2 (Sexton, Carter, Ayton, Bamba, Porter)
with Vanderbilt, Jackson, and Brown right behind them as role players
with sneaky potential.

Tier 3: The Rest
14. Mikal Bridges, 6’8〃 Junior, Villanova
15. Bruce Brown, 6’4〃 Sophomore, Miami FL
16. Andrew Jones, 6’4〃 Sophomore, Texas
17. Hamidou Diallo, 6’5〃 Freshman, Kentucky
18. Emmanuel Akot, 6’8〃 Freshman, Arizona
19. Mitchell Robinson, 6’11” Freshman, Western Kentucky
20. Markis McDuffie, 6’8〃 Junior, Wichita St.
21. Jacob Evans, 6’6〃 Junior, Cincinnati
22. Rawle Alkins, 6’5〃 Sophomore, Arizona
23. Tyler Hall, 6’4〃 Junior, Montana St.
24. Shamorie Ponds, 6’0〃 Sophomore, St. John’s
25. Gary Clark, 6’7〃 Senior, Cincinnati
26. Trent Forrest, 6’5〃 Sophomore, Florida St.
27. Bryant Crawford, 6’3〃 Junior, Wake Forest
28. John Petty, 6’6〃 Freshman, Alabama
29. Kevin Huerter, 6’6〃 Sophomore, Maryland
30. Kevin Hervey, 6’7〃 Senior, UT Arlington

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