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原文標題：

※A global house-price slump is coming

原文連結：


https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/10/20/a-global-house-price-slump-is-coming

發布時間：

※Oct 20th 2022

記者署名：

※Ricardo Rey

原文內容：
Over the past decade owning a house has meant easy money. Prices rose
reliably for years and then went bizarrely ballistic in the pandemic. Yet
today if your wealth is tied up in bricks and mortar it is time to get
nervous. House prices are now falling in nine rich economies. The drops in
America are small so far, but in the wildest markets they are already
dramatic. In condo-crazed Canada homes cost 9% less than they did in
February. As inflation and recession stalk the world a deepening correction
is likely—even estate agents are gloomy. Although this will not detonate
global banks as in 2007-09, it will intensify the downturn, leave a cohort of
people with wrecked finances and start a political storm.

The cause of the crunch is soaring interest rates: in America prospective
buyers have been watching, horrified, as the 30-year mortgage rate has hit
6.92%, over twice the level of a year ago and the highest since April 2002.
The pandemic mini-bubble was fuelled by rate cuts, stimulus cash and a hunt
for more suburban space. Now most of that is going into reverse. Take, for
example, someone who a year ago could afford to put $1,800 a month towards a
30-year mortgage. Back then they could have borrowed $420,000. Today the
payment is enough for a loan of $280,000: 33% less. From Stockholm to Sydney
the buying power of borrowers is collapsing. That makes it harder for new
buyers to afford homes, depressing demand, and can squeeze the finances of
existing owners who, if they are unlucky, may be forced to sell.

The good news is that falling house prices will not cause an epic financial
bust in America as they did 15 years ago. The country has fewer risky loans
and better-capitalised banks which have not binged on dodgy subprime
securities. Uncle Sam now underwrites or securitises two-thirds of new
mortgages. The big losers will be taxpayers. Through state insurance schemes
they bear the risk of defaults. As rates rise they are exposed to losses via
the Federal Reserve, which owns one-quarter of mortgage-backed securities.

Some other places, such as South Korea and the Nordic countries, have seen
scarier accelerations in borrowing, with household debt of around 100% of
gdp. They could face destabilising losses at their banks or shadow financial
firms: Sweden’s central-bank boss has likened this to “sitting on top of a
volcano”. But the world’s worst housing-related financial crisis will still
be confined to China, whose problems—vast speculative excess, mortgage
strikes, people who have pre-paid for flats which have not been built—are,
mercifully, contained within its borders.

Even without a synchronised global banking crash, though, the housing
downturn will be grim. First, because gummed-up property markets are a drag
on the jobs market. As rates rise and prices gradually adjust, the
uncertainty makes people hesitant about moving. Sales of existing homes in
America dropped by 20% in August year on year, and Zillow, a housing firm,
reports 13% fewer new listings than the seasonal norm. In Canada sales
volumes could drop by 40% this year. When people cannot move, it saps labour
markets of dynamism, a big worry when companies are trying to adapt to worker
shortages and the energy crisis. And when prices do plunge, homeowners can
find their homes are worth less than their mortgages, making it even harder
to up sticks—a problem that afflicted many economies after the global
financial crisis.

心得/評論：
經濟學人說房價崩塌已經來了
美國建設公司不愧是經歷過2008
去年就已經減產
這樣房價下跌帶來的損失就不會失控

希望台灣的建設公司也有做好風險控管
加上政府強力護房市政策
應該可協助營建類股度過這次危機

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