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原文標題：

Why this week’s Fed meeting could be ‘March madness’ for markets

原文連結：

https://reurl.cc/o9YGRj

發布時間：

PUBLISHED MON, MAR 15 20214:19 PM EDTUPDATED MON, MAR 15 20216:14 PM EDT

原文內容：

KEY POINTS

With the economy about to boom, the Fed’s easy policies will be in the
spotlight Wednesday when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to the press after
the Fed’s two-day meeting.

The Fed will release new economic and interest rate forecasts, which could
show Fed officials expect to raise rates by 2023.

BlackRock’s Rick Rieder said Powell’s briefing could be “exciting to see”
 and the Fed meeting could be the central bank’s “March Madness” for
markets, since the chairman could begin to reveal some views on the future
path of Fed policy.


Odds are high the Fed will move markets this week, no matter how hard it
tries not to.

With the surge in interest rates and rebounding economy, the Fed’s easy
policies are in the spotlight, and increasingly the question has become when
will it consider unwinding them. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to be
asked questions about the Fed’s low interest rate policies and asset
purchases during his press briefing, following the Fed’s two-day meeting
that concludes Wednesday.

Powell is unlikey to be specific but what he says could rock the already
volatile bond market, and that in turn could drive stocks. It could
particularly hit growth stocks, if bond yields begin to rise.

“I think the last press conference, I think I watched with one eye, and
listened with one ear. This one I’m going to be tuned in to every word, and
the markets are going to be tuned in to every word,” said Rick Rieder,
BlackRock’s CIO for global fixed income. “If he says nothing, it will move
markets. If he says a lot it will move markets.”

Rieder said the briefing should be “exciting to see,” and a challenge for
the Fed to potentially begin changing communications on its policy. He said
investors will be parsing every word. “This will be the March Madness,” for
the markets, he said, referring to the highly anticipated collegiate
basketball tournament.

Powell clearly has the ball, and what he decides to say Wednesday will
dictate to edgy markets how soon the Fed might consider paring back its bond
buying and even raising interest rates from zero.

Statement to stay mostly the same

The Federal Open Market Committee will release its statement at 2 p.m. ET
Wednesday, after the meeting, and Fed watchers expect little change in the
text.

But the Fed also releases officials’ latest forecasts for the economy and
interest rates. That could show that most officials would be ready to raise
the fed funds target rate range from zero in 2023, and a few members may even
be ready to raise rates next year.

“We think they will sound a bit more optimistic but still cautious. That
said, we think it will be hard for them to sound as dovish as they have been
just because the facts on the ground are improving,” said Mark Cabana, head
of U.S. short-rate strategy at Bank of America. “As a result of that, we
think they’re going to sound a little less accommodative than the market is
expecting. We think they’re likely to show a hike at the end of 2023.”

Rieder said the Fed’s been steadily steering its easing programs, but now it
needs to begin to communicate that it expects to change policy on both asset
purchases and interest rates. He said the Fed has been explicit in that it
would provide plenty of time between when it starts communicating change and
when it acts.

“It strikes me it’s time,” he said. Rieder said his out-of-consensus view
is that the Fed could start tapering back its bond buying in September or
December, and it needs to begin discussing that now. The Fed buys $80 billion
a month of Treasurys and $40 billion a month of mortgages.

He also said the Fed could also start raising short-term interest rates next
year without hurting the economy. The Fed has not forecast any interest rate
hikes until after 2023, but that could change in its latest forecast.

“They can’t raise short interest rates this year, but as you get into the
second and third quarter of next year, not raising short-term interest rates
would be incongruous with what their economic projections should be,” Rieder
said.

Rates on the rise

The Fed meets against a back drop of rate volatility in the more typically
staid Treasury market. Over the past six weeks, the 10-year yield, which
influences mortgage rates and other loans, has risen from 1.07% to a high of
1.64% last Friday. It was at 1.6% Monday.

The yield, which moves opposite price, has been reacting to a more upbeat
view of the economy, based on the vaccine rollout and Washington’s stimulus
spending. It has also reacted to the idea that inflation could pick up as the
economy roars back. Powell has said the Fed expects to see just a temporary
jump in inflation measures in the spring because of the depressed prices
during the economic shutdown last year.
“They’ve got to start that communication ... the markets are waiting for it,
” Rieder said. “The jumpiness of rates and the volatility in the market is
because we haven’t heard their plan yet.”

Rieder said the Fed could raise interest rates while it is still buying
bonds. He said it may want to shift its purchases more towards the long end
to keep longer term rates low, since they impact mortgages and other loans.

“In their economic projections, their employment projections for next year
is probably going to be 4%. If that’s right, why not? Raising short-end
interest rates and draining some liquidity out of the front part of the yield
curve is not a problem,” he said.

“Times like these call for creativity and innovation,” Rieder said. “They’
ve been remarkably innovative. They’ve provided so much liquidity to the
system, the front end is awash in liquidity and yields are too low, in an
environment where you could have 7% growth this year.”.

In the last forecast, five of 17 members expected a rate hike in 2023, and
just one forecast a hike in 2022. Fed officials provide their rate forecasts
anonymously, on a so-called dot plot.

The Fed has said it would continue its bond purchases until it’s made “
substantial progress” towards its goals.

Cabana said there could be a few officials who now forecast a hike for 2022,
but he doesn’t expect the Fed to embrace that yet. The fed funds futures
market is pricing in close to one hike in 2022 and three hikes by the end of
2023.

“You think if the market is pricing that, and the Fed doesn’t deliver, the
market should be disappointed. We actually think many in the market think the
Fed will push back, and the Fed will tell the market it’s wrong,” said
Cabana. “We don’t think so. We think the Fed will retain the optionality of
having the market price in a rosier outlook. Does the Fed hope the market is
right, or they’re right? The Fed is hoping the market is right because it
wants to achieve its goal sooner. We don’t think the Fed is going to push
back too hard.”

The Fed could say “substantive progress is still some time away,” Cabana
said. He said he does expect the Fed at some point to change the duration of
bonds it is buying and shift towards the long end to keep those rates, like
the 10-year, from rising too much.



機翻如下：

為什麼本周美聯儲會議可能成為市場的“三月瘋狂”

關鍵點：

1.隨著經濟的蓬勃發展，週三美聯儲主席杰羅姆‧鮑威爾在聯儲為期兩天的會議後向媒體
發表講話時，美聯儲的寬鬆政策將成為人們關注的焦點。

2.美聯儲將發布新的經濟和利率預測，這可能表明美聯儲官員希望在2023年之前加息。




美聯儲本週將動搖市場的可能性很高，無論它試圖採取多大的努力。



鮑威爾不太可能具體說明，但他說的話可能會動搖本已動蕩的債券市場，從而反過來可能
推高股市。如果債券收益率開始上升，這可能特別打擊成長型股票。





鮑威爾顯然有把握，而他決定在周三發表的講話將使市場前途未卜。美聯儲可能會考慮在
多長時間內削減其債券購買，甚至將利率從零提高。

聲明基本保持不變

聯邦公開市場委員會將於下午2點發布聲明。美聯儲會議結束後，美國東部時間星期三，
美聯儲觀察員預計文本不會有太大變化。

但美聯儲還發布了官員對經濟和利率的最新預測。這可能表明大多數官員已準備好在2023
年將聯邦基金的目標利率範圍從零提高，甚至有少數成員甚至準備在明年加息。







他還表示，美聯儲也可能在明年開始提高短期利率而不會損害經濟。美聯儲直到2023年之
前都沒有預測過加息，但是最新的預測可能會改變。

里德說：“他們今年不能提高短期利率，但是當你進入明年第二季度和第三季度時，不提
高短期利率將與他們的經濟預期相矛盾。”

利率上升





里德說：“他們必須開始這種溝通……市場正在等待它。” “利率的上漲和市場的動盪
是因為我們還沒有聽到他們的計劃。”

里德說，美聯儲可能仍在購買債券的同時提高利率。他說，它可能希望將其購買更多地向
長期轉移，以保持較低的長期利率，因為這會影響抵押貸款和其他貸款。

“在他們的經濟預測中，他們對明年的就業預測可能會達到4％。如果是的話，為什麼不
呢？提高短期利率和從收益率曲線的前部抽出一些流動性不是問題，”他說。



在上一次預測中，17個成員中有5個預期在2023年加息，而只有 1個成員預測在2022年加
息。美聯儲官員以所謂的點狀圖匿名提供其利率預測。

美聯儲表示將繼續購買債券，直到朝著目標“取得實質性進展”為止。

卡瓦納說，現在可能有幾位官員預測2022年加息，但他不希望美聯儲接受這一點。聯邦基
金期貨市場的價格到2022年將近漲一次，到2023年底將會漲三次。







心得/評論：

FED看起來對於經濟前景越來越樂觀了

升息的預期也越來越提前

市場將對禮拜三FED老大的談話拭目以待

ps:"三月瘋狂"同時也是美國NCAA一級男籃的雙關


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