---

https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.03268

美國洛斯阿拉莫斯國家實驗室(Los Alamos, 做核彈的那個)

裡面的研究員們發表了論文的preprint

指出武漢病毒的R0在 4.7 到 6.6之間

也就是每個患者會感染 5 到 6 人

遠超過原先估計的 2.2 ~ 2.7

患者數在傳染初期每 2.4 天會翻倍

Abstract

.. we estimated that the number of infected
individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is
likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact
tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early,
strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

怕= =  日本沉沒??

--
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 68.71.180.136 (美國)
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1UHz-VW2 (Gossiping)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1581768607.A.802.html