---

以下為烏克蘭的部分：

(翻譯為求時效主要是機翻的，請見諒！
 如有任何建議可以請下面推文，我有空盡量更正)

--

Nothing motivates as hard as an existential threat. First, Ukrainians
admitted the truth:


"I'll be frank. Today we have no army. Now we can assemble a group of 5
thousand capable soldiers max [out of 125 on paper]"

- reported minister of defence in 2014

沒有什麼比生存威脅更能激發人的動力了。首先，烏克蘭人承認了事實：

 "坦率地說。今天我們沒有軍隊。
  現在我們最多可以集結5000名有能力的士兵[雖然帳面有12.5萬人]"

 2014 年烏克蘭國防部長的報告

In 2014 Ukrainian equipment was awful. Almost 100% vehicle and ammunition
were 25+ year old Soviet stocks. Moreover, most of it just expired. Like
vehicles existed on paper but were never checked or used since 1991. Their
radiators, accumulators all rotten and unrepairable.

2014 年，烏克蘭的設備很糟糕。幾乎 100% 的車輛和彈藥都是 25 年以上的蘇聯庫存。
而且，大部分剛剛過期。就像帳面上雖然有車輛，但自 1991 年以來從未檢查或使用過。
它們的散熱器、蓄電池都已腐爛且無法修復。

FSB colonel who led pro-Russian insurgency in 2014 admitted it created
problem for him, too. He wanted to restock from the Ukrainian military
warehouses, but that stuff just didn't work. Like they took 28 anti-tank
missiles and fired them all during Nikolaevka battle. None worked。

2014 年領導親俄叛亂的 FSB 上校承認，這也給他帶來了麻煩。他想從烏克蘭的軍事倉庫
補貨，但那東西沒用。就像他們在尼古拉耶夫卡戰役中拿走了 28 枚反坦克導彈並全部發
射了一樣。沒有一發有效。

Judging by the interviews with insurgents who were disappointed to find that
rockets, shells, grenades taken from Ukrainian warehouses were 99%
dysfunctional (ofc, they were 25+ years old) it's not surprising Ukraine lost
to Russia in 2014. It's surprising they could fight at all.

從對叛亂分子的採訪來看，他們失望地發現從烏克蘭倉庫中取出的火箭、砲彈、手榴彈
 99% 都無法正常工作（當然，它們製造日期都超過 25年了），烏克蘭在 2014 年輸給
俄羅斯也就不足為奇了。他們能戰鬥才奇怪！
(譯註：這句原本機翻有點突兀，感謝版友NewCop的協助)

Even the ancient soviet radio machines didn't work. Ukrainian soldiers had to
communicate with SMS and since network was often awful they had to throw
their mobile phones up in air in a hope may be it will catch radio signal few
meters over the ground.

即使是古老的蘇聯無線電機器也無法工作。烏克蘭士兵不得不通過簡訊進行通信，由於網
路通常很糟糕，他們不得不把手機扔到空中，希望它能捕捉到離地面幾米遠的無線電信號。

That's how Ukrainian army looked back then. No wonder it was immediately
crushed by Russian regulars in Debaltsevo and Ilovaysk and Putin had every
reason to believe that resistance will be broken the moment he launches his
regular army en masse.

那時的烏克蘭軍隊就是這樣看的。難怪它立即在傑巴爾採沃和伊洛韋斯克被俄羅斯正規軍
鎮壓，普京完全有理由相信，一旦他大規模發動正規軍，抵抗就會被打破。

A lot has changed. First, Ukraine has had six drafts. Men were drafted and
sent to Donbass. Then most demobilised and returned to civilian life. This
Donbass contingent was around 60 thousand soldiers and constantly rotated. So
now Ukraine has 400 000+ veterans of Donbass war.

很多東西都變了。首先，烏克蘭已徵兵六次。男子被徵召並送往頓巴斯。然後大多數復員
並返回平民生活。這支頓巴斯特遣隊約有六萬士兵，不斷輪換。所以現在烏克蘭有400
000多名頓巴斯戰爭退伍軍人。

Many of them were in combat. Thus Ukraine has huge number of veterans with
combat experience. Probably more than Russia. Yes, Russia has been fighting
in Syria. It never published the size of its force but it's estimated to be
2-3 thousand. Most Russian soldiers have not seen war.

他們中的許多人都在戰鬥。因此，烏克蘭擁有大量具有戰鬥經驗的退伍軍人。可能超過俄
羅斯。是的，俄羅斯一直在敘利亞作戰。它從未公佈其部隊的規模，但估計為 2-3 千人
。大多數俄羅斯士兵沒有看過戰爭。

Furthermore, combat they've seen is different. Russian soldiers are used to
fighting only when they total superiority. In Syria they would just level
cities to the ground with bombers. Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers have fought
only against far stronger and better equipped enemy.

而且，他們所見的戰鬥也不一樣。俄羅斯士兵只有在完全佔據優勢時才習慣戰鬥。在敘利
亞，他們只會用轟炸機將城市夷為平地。與此同時，烏克蘭士兵只與更強大、裝備更精良
的敵人作戰。

Equipment-wise this war took Ukrainian army half-resupplied. It developed
many innovative weaponry of its own, but almost none of it was produced on
large scale. In most cases soldiers have only few prototypes of new,
Ukrainian-produced weaponry。

裝備方面，這場戰爭使烏克蘭軍隊得到了一半的補給。它自己開發了許多創新武器，但幾
乎沒有一個是大規模生產的。在大多數情況下，士兵只有少數烏克蘭生產的新型武器原型。

Ukraine ordered 48 Turkish Bayraktars TB2 drones. That's not bad - more than
twice what Azerbaijan had in Karabakh. But only 12 of them got to the troops
by now. Ukraine is also developing new, stronger drone Bayraktar Akinci
together with Turks, but it's too late for this war。

克蘭訂購了 48 架土耳其 Bayraktars TB2 無人機。這還不錯——是阿塞拜疆在卡拉巴赫
的兩倍多。但現在只有12架無人機到了部隊。烏克蘭也在與土耳其人一起開發新的、
更強大的無人機 Bayraktar Akinci，但這場戰爭為時已晚。

However, Ukrainians got a number (unpublished) of American-produced Javelins
and M141 Bunker Defeat Munition, & British-Swedish produced MBT LAWs.
Together with Ukrainian produced anti-tank weaponry such as "Stugna-P", RK-3
"Corsar" and "Barrier" it helps to fight Russian tanks.

然而，烏克蘭人獲得了一些（未公佈的）美國生產的標槍和 M141 掩體擊破彈藥，以及英
國-瑞典生產的 MBT LAW。連同烏克蘭生產的反坦克武器，如"Stugna-P", RK-3
"Corsar" 和 "Barrier"。它有助於對抗俄羅斯坦克。

Ukrainian troops hadn't received many new tanks by the time Putin attacked.
But they got new armoured vehicles, such as domestic-produced Cossack-2 with
Turkish produced Aselsan fighting modules and a number of American armoured
vehicles, humvees, etc.

到普京發動襲擊時，烏克蘭軍隊還沒有收到很多新坦克。但是他們得到了新的裝甲車，例
如國產的哥薩克2和土耳其生產的阿塞爾桑戰鬥模塊和一些美國裝甲車、悍馬等。

Finally, Ukraine created a new type of troops - the troops of territorial
defence, whose number is estimated in 60 000. It's a copy of the Polish troop
type. These are civilians who get military training and can be mobilised in a
day to fight only in their own town and region.

最後，烏克蘭創建了一種新型部隊——領土防禦部隊，其人數估計為 60 000 人。這是波
蘭部隊類型的複製品。這些是受過軍事訓練的平民，可以在一天內動員起來，只在自己的
城鎮和地區進行戰鬥。

Why? Well, that's pretty obvious. If Russia made a proper Blitzkrieg with
several echelons of attack, Ukraine would lose anyway. But Russia didn't. And
Ukrainians bet that they wouldn't. First - it's costly and difficult for a
state security regime which isn't landmaxing。

為什麼？嗯，這很明顯。如果俄羅斯進行了一次適當的閃電戰，有幾個梯隊的攻擊，烏克
蘭無論如何都會輸。但俄羅斯沒有。烏克蘭人打賭他們不會。首先——對於一個沒有土地
最大化的國家安全制度來說，這是昂貴和困難的。

Second, Putin expected Ukrainian army to run away or surrender in the first
day. Like most of foreign observers expected. Now they're of course changing
the narrative, but if you look at their posts few days ago they didn't
believe that Ukrainians would make any real resistance.

其次，普京預計烏克蘭軍隊在第一天就逃跑或投降。正如大多數外國觀察家所預料的那樣
。現在他們當然在改變敘述，但如果你看他們幾天前的帖子，他們不相信烏克蘭人會做出
任何真正的抵抗。

So Putin attacked with only one echelon. Troops pushed forward leaving many
non-destroyed Ukrainian regulars and levy behind. In a proper Blitzkrieg a
second and third echelon would have come to finish Ukrainian defenders. But
they didn't. These additional echelons didn't exist.

所以普京只用了一個梯隊進攻。部隊向前推進，留下許多未被摧毀的烏克蘭正規軍和徵兵
。在適當的閃電戰中，第二梯隊和第三梯隊將掃蕩烏克蘭防衛軍。但他們沒有。這些額外的
梯隊並不存在。

Which immediately created the supply and replenishment problem. The first
echelon pushed forward. It needs a supply in ammo, in fuel and well, in
people. But these supply convoys are being attacked by the regulars and
territorial defence troops left behind.

這立即造成了供應和補貨問題。第一梯隊向前推進。它需要彈藥、燃料和人員的供應。但
這些補給車隊正遭到留下的正規軍和領土防禦部隊的襲擊。

And reportedly by the levy whom the government just distributed guns. These
people would be unable to stand against the Russian columns but they can
attack convoys. Consider that Ukraine has many veterans with combat
experience among civilians.

據報導，政府剛剛分發槍支的徵稅人。這些人將無法抵抗俄羅斯的縱隊，但他們可以攻擊
車隊。考慮到烏克蘭有許多平民中具有戰鬥經驗的退伍軍人。

Strelkov, who led pro-Russian insurgency in 2014 confirms this version in his
telegram. Supply columns are being destroyed because there's no second echelon.

2014 年領導親俄叛亂的 Strelkov 在他的電報中證實了這一說法。補給線被摧毀，因為
沒有第二梯隊。

Putin is apparently concerned. In the video of 25 Feb he called for Ukrainian
military to do a coup d'erat. He wouldn't need it if his plan worked in the
first place.

普京顯然很擔心。在 2 月 25 日的影片中，他呼籲烏克蘭軍方發動政變。如果他的計劃
奏效，一開始他就不需要它。

What does it mean? Putin's plan didn't work. Cuz he didn't plan for war. He
never fought a war and has no idea how to fight them. He has been always
doing Special Operations and this is a Special Operation, too. They should
have just run away or surrender, but they keep fighting.

這是什麼意思？普京的計劃沒有奏效。因為他沒有計劃戰爭。他從未打過仗，也不知道如
何與他們作戰。他一直在做特別行動，這也是特別行動。他們本應該逃跑或投降，但他們
一直在戰鬥。

The defeat in this operation will inflict enormous consequences for Putin and
his regime. They are unlikely to survive this defeat. Meanwhile, it's
unlikely that Putin wins by the same methods.

這次行動的失敗將對普京及其政權造成巨大後果。他們不太可能在這次失敗中倖存下來。
與此同時，普京不太可能以同樣的方式獲勝。

It's not that Russian morale is low, it's rather that it depends on how hard
the war is.Most Russian troops would be enthusiastic or wouldn't mind against
a small foreign vacation with fun and adventures. Fighting a hard long war
with real possibility of death is another matter.

並不是說俄羅斯士氣低落，而是取決於戰爭的艱難程度。大多數俄羅斯軍隊會熱情或不介
意在國外度過一個有趣和冒險的小假期。打一場真正有可能死亡的艱苦長期戰爭是另一回
事。

Morale of Russian troops is widely overestimated. According to sociological
studies the main motivation to enlist is usually to get an apartment. They
are usually young men from underprivileged background with no real prospects
in life. That's a chance to get a housing from state.

俄羅斯軍隊的士氣被普遍高估了。根據社會學研究，入伍的主要動機通常是為了獲得公寓
。他們通常是來自貧困背景的年輕人，沒有真正的生活前景。這是從政府獲得住房的機會。

Now if you are dead, you can't get a housing. Perhaps those already in
Ukraine have little choice but the very fact that resistance continues, war
is bloody and casualties are real would hugely demotivate those back at home.
Expect no enthusiasm to go there on Russian side.

現在，如果你死了，你將無法獲得住房。也許那些已經在烏克蘭的人別無選擇，但抵抗仍
在繼續，戰爭是血腥的，傷亡是真實的這一事實將極大地打擊那些回到家鄉的人。因此可
以期待(他們)將缺乏熱忱去站在俄羅斯這一側。

What Putin can do?

1. Start destroying infrastructure (done)
2. Blockade cities (done)
3. Simply level cities with bombers and artillery like in Chechnya or Syria
(may be)

The first two would inflict humanitarian catastrophe and as he hopes break
the will.

普京能做什麼？

 1.開始破壞基礎設施（已經開始進行）
 2.封鎖城市（已經開始進行）
 3. 簡單地用轟炸機和大砲將城市夷為平地，例如車臣或敘利亞（有可能）

前兩個將造成人道主義災難，這會與他原本的期望背道而馳。

Third one is more problematic. Unlike Chechnya or Syria where you could
easily justify the open genocide with "fighting jihadees" which is a fair
play in the "war on terror", here it would be more difficult and actually
might draw the NATO response. Still, I can't exclude this.

第三個問題更大。與車臣或敘利亞不同，你可以很容易地用“打擊聖戰者”來證明公開種
族滅絕的正當性，這是“反恐戰爭”中的公平遊戲，在這裡它會更加困難，實際上可能會
引起北約的反應。不過，我不能排除這個可能性。

So my prognosis is: if the fight continues and victory is not achieved
Russian ability and willingness to fight will be disappearing quickly. Putin
doesn't have a choice but many of his subordinates do.

所以我的預測是：如果戰鬥繼續下去而沒有取得勝利，俄羅斯的戰鬥能力和意願將迅速消
失。普京別無選擇，但他的許多下屬則有。

Even in case when Russia doesn't technically lose and some source of
armistice/agreement is achieved, Ukraine already won. Why? Many describe this
conflict as kinetic. Bullshit. Human conflicts or interactions are not
kinetic. They are mythological and run by myths.

即使俄羅斯在技術上沒有失敗並且達成了停戰/協議的一些來源，烏克蘭也已經贏了。為
什麼？許多人將這種衝突描述為動態的。胡扯。人類衝突或互動不是動態的。它們是神話
般的，由神話經營。

Money is a myth. It exists only because we believe so. Power is a myth.
Nation is a myth. Institutions are purely mythological. Consider the story of
the burning of Moscow in 1572. Ivan the Terrible divided his country to
Zemschina (land) and Oprichnina (taken apart).

金錢是一個神話。它的存在只是因為我們相信。權力是一個神話。民族是一個神話。制度
純粹是神話。想想 1572 年莫斯科大火的故事。伊凡雷帝將他的國家劃分為 Zemschina（
職轄區）和 Oprichnina（特轄區）.

譯註：此處感謝下面autoexecbat網友的說明跟建議，為讀者方便理解我摘錄在下面


(以下有十段左右的文字在探討神話建構與莫斯科政權建國的關係我就略過)

Theorists of war of the bygone age understood it. Clausewitz pointed out that
it's important not only if you lost independence but *how* you lost it. If
you submitted without a fight, you saved lives. But you killed your mythos.
You'll be digested by the conqueror

過去時代的戰爭理論家明白這一點。克勞塞維茨指出，重要的不僅是你是否失去了獨立性
，而且*如何*失去它。如果你不戰而降，你就挽救了生命。但是你殺死了你的神話。你會
被征服者消化。

But if you lost after the brutal and bloody fight your mythos is alive. The
memory of the last battle will live through the ages. It will shape the
mythological space your descendants live in and they'll attempt to restore
independence at the first opportunity.

但是，如果您在殘酷而血腥的戰鬥後輸了，您的神話仍然存在。最後一戰的記憶將永存。
它將塑造您的後代生活的神話空間，他們將在第一時間嘗試恢復獨立。

(全文完)

--
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 219.68.120.5 (臺灣)
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1Y7684MK (Military)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Military/M.1646027268.A.594.html